The 79-year-old manager of a tobacco shop in a residential area 15 minutes walk from JR Nakano Station in Nakano Ward, Tokyo, has come through some tough times, but looming sharp increases in cigarette prices could be the final straw.
"Since Taspo cards [to verify the age of cigarette buyers] were introduced two years ago, my sales dropped to one-fourth of what they were," she said.
Her father-in-law established the shop 70 years ago. Even after her father-in-law and husband died, the business stayed afloat thanks to regular customers in the neighborhood.
However, the shop's future looks bleak with the prices of major cigarette brands to be bumped up by 100 yen or more per pack of 20 cigarettes from next month.
"The coming price hikes will probably spell doom for my business," the old woman said, adding that she has yet to break this news to people close to her.
Hiroshi Kurotaki, 77, who has operated a tobacco shop for 40 years in front of Waseda Station on the Arakawa Line in Shinjuku Ward, also fears for the future of his business. He estimates higher cigarette prices will cause his sales to drop by half.
"The tax increase is a slap in the face for tobacco shops. We've run our business and abided by the law, but the government is treating us as if we're selling poison," Kurotaki said. "At my age, I won't be able to switch to another job, but I think it'll be very hard to keep my shop open."
The government decided in December to hike the tobacco tax by 3.5 yen per cigarette. Japan Tobacco Inc. subsequently announced cigarette markups ranging from 60 yen to 140 yen per pack--JT's largest-ever price increases. JT says raising prices by more than the new tax rate is aimed at cushioning the revenue drop expected from the decline in sales.
JT has forecast tobacco sales for the year from Oct. 1 will drop by 25 percent year-on-year because many smokers will quit and others will cut back.
But JT is making hay while the sun shines: Its factories have ramped up cigarette production to nearly double the normal output to cope with massive demand just before the prices increase.
Digging deep for the resolve to quit
Giving up smoking is much easier said than done.
"Whenever I see a tobacco shop sign, it often becomes nearly impossible to suppress my desire to smoke," a 55-year-old company employee said with a chuckle to Hiroyasu Muramatsu, deputy head doctor at the Central Internal Medicine Clinic in Chuo Ward, Tokyo. "But with the help of 'stop smoking pills' and encouragement from my colleagues, I haven't had a puff for a few days."
The company employee began smoking 35 years ago. He smoked 30 cigarettes a day, and more than 40 if he went out drinking, the man said.
"I tried to quit many times, but this time I'm resolved to stop smoking," he said.
Muramatsu said the clinic usually had about 100 outpatients seeking help to quit smoking each month, but the number had jumped 30 percent since April.
In the first two weeks of this month alone, more than 150 people wanting to stop smoking had come to the clinic, the doctor said.
Associate Prof. Mayumi Abe at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, an expert in antismoking treatment, said the looming price rises seemed to be the straw that broke the camel's back for many people who had been thinking about quitting smoking.
"The price increase seems to be a strong incentive to people wanting to break their addiction to smoking," Abe said. "I think the higher prices will particularly sting young people and college students who have little spare cash."
Antitobacco products selling well
Many stores are making it nigh on impossible for smokers to forget about the looming price increase.
"Tobacco tax will be raised soon! Why don't you stop smoking now?" screams a sign above a display of antismoking gum and other products to help smokers quit at the Tsuruha drugstore chain's Umeyashiki branch in Ota Ward, Tokyo.
The store set up the display in August. The number of customers giving more than a passing glance to these goods has steadily increased as the price increase draws near.
"I expect sales of antismoking products will soar just before the tax hike and after cigarette prices actually go up," a clerk at the store said.
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